Bihar is heading into another pivotal assembly election expected around October–November 2025, with all 243 legislative seats up for grabs. As the state braces for the verdict, the political environment is heating up with shifting alliances, rising new leaders, and voter expectations shaping the narrative.
Changing Political Equations
In recent years, Bihar has witnessed dramatic realignments. After leading a coalition with the BJP in 2020, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) switched sides in 2022 to join hands with the RJD-led Grand Alliance (Mahagathbandhan). However, in an unexpected twist, Nitish returned to the NDA fold in January 2024, regaining the Chief Minister’s chair for a record ninth time.
Opinion Polls: Who’s Leading the Race?
A recent survey conducted by C-Voter reveals interesting trends in voter preferences:
- Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) remains the frontrunner with support from 35.5% of respondents, though slightly lower than February’s 40.6%.
- Prashant Kishor, the strategist-turned-politician and founder of Jan Suraaj, is steadily rising with 17.2% backing.
- Nitish Kumar trails behind, with 15.4% voter support — showing a decline from earlier figures.
These numbers suggest that Bihar is witnessing a three-way battle where established leaders are being challenged by new political forces.
What the Internet Says: Google Trends Insights
Over the past month, Google search trends indicate growing interest in the Congress party (48.3%), followed by BJP (35.2%), RJD (12.1%), and JD(U) (4.4%). This shows a digital buzz around national parties, especially Congress, possibly due to its digital campaigns and outreach.
Caste Composition: A Deciding Factor
Understanding Bihar’s social structure is key to decoding its politics:
- Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs): 36%
- Other Backward Classes (OBCs): 27.12%
- Scheduled Castes (SCs): 19.65%
- Upper Castes: 15.52%
- Yadavs (within OBCs): 14.26%
- Kurmis: 2.87%
These communities hold the electoral weight, and every party is tailoring its strategy accordingly.
he Main Contenders and Their Game Plans
- NDA (BJP + JD(U) + Allies): Banking on experience, governance claims, and a renewed alliance.
- INDIA Bloc (RJD, Congress, Left): Promising change, social justice, and welfare schemes.
- Jan Suraaj (Prashant Kishor): Aiming to disrupt traditional politics with a grassroots movement and fresh faces.
Latest Developments to Watch
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj is growing rapidly in villages and towns, appealing to youth and first-time voters with a focus on real issues.
Congress has launched a tech-driven candidate application system, allowing anyone to apply via QR code—an innovative step to reach common people.
BJP’s push for a national caste census is aimed at recalibrating its appeal to backward and marginalized groups, especially in a caste-sensitive state like Bihar.
BJP’s push for a national caste census is aimed at recalibrating its appeal to backward and marginalized groups, especially in a caste-sensitive state like Bihar.
Conclusion: Bihar’s Political Future is Wide Open
With a mix of old guard resilience and new-age challengers, the Bihar 2025 Assembly Election promises to be one of the most engaging battles in recent times. From unemployment and caste equations to leadership trust and alliance durability, everything is under public scrutiny. One thing is certain: the road to Patna is no longer predictable.
